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“Despite a lot of talk about the recession word in the media, economists for Associated Builders & Contractors (ABC), Associated General Contractors (AGC), and Dodge Data and Analytics think the US economy will narrowly avoid recession in 2023 – generally considered to be when the gross domestic product (GDP), employment, and investment all fall simultaneously.
“There will be some sectors that will feel recessionary and some that don’t,” says Dodge Chief Economist Richard Branch. This mixed economic outlook for 2023 is likely to reward contractors who are able to pivot to sectors experiencing growth.
In a recent podcast, AGC Economist Ken Simonson points to continued job growth, government spending, and declining inflation as positive signs we won’t be facing a recession.
As of November, contractor confidence remains surprisingly upbeat according to ABC’s Construction Confidence Index. “Six in 10 contractors intend to increase their staffing levels over the next six months, while just more than one in 10 expect to shed workers,” says Zack Fritz, Economist for ABC. “About half of contractors expect their sales to increase compared to about two in 10 who expect their sales to decrease.” You can read more below, including about the potential headwinds and which markets will be up or down in the year ahead.
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